It’s peak fantasy football drafting season, and the Buffalo Bills have one of the most fantasy-friendly offenses in the entire NFL. The lingering question is, how should you handle some of the big names on the Bills roster for your fantasy drafts?
Who should be higher up on your lists, and who might not be worth it where they’re getting drafted?
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Here’s a detailed outlook at the Bills’ fantasy football prospects from the eyes of a reporter who has been to every practice and analyzes the team’s roster on a day-to-day basis.
*Note, you can find The Athletic’s Jake Ciely’s fantasy rankings here. We used FantasyPros.com average draft positions for the data to work from.
Jake Ciely ranking: 33
FantasyPros ADP: 19.7
Allen is set up for an excellent season as one of the league’s top quarterbacks both in real life and in fantasy football, though there are a few changes, some good and some bad. First, he’s fully healthy after an elbow injury that bothered him in the second half of the season despite not missing a game. The Bills’ overall offensive output in the second half of the season was a bit disjointed and there could be some correlation there to his injury. However, it was compounded by lacking trustworthy targets past star receiver Stefon Diggs. That brings us to the second big change — the supporting cast.
The Bills invested more into their skill positions this offseason than anywhere else on the roster. They drafted Dalton Kincaid in the first round, and all signs point to them using him significantly. They signed two receivers with differing skill sets in Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty, to compete with second-year player Khalil Shakir for playing time. He’ll have a higher upside pass-catching back in James Cook than he ever has in his career. Gabe Davis is fully healthy after an early-season high ankle sprain defined his 2022 season. They also invested at guard and likely will have two upgrades in Connor McGovern and O’Cyrus Torrence to give Allen more time in the pocket. And to top it all off, offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey will be more comfortable in his second season.
Though the overall offensive environment has greatly improved, a big piece of Allen’s fantasy football allure is his rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. The Bills have depended on him for multiple years, almost to the detriment of their franchise player taking big hits every week. They have longed to change that, which could result in Allen sliding or going out of bounds earlier than he would have in past years. The quarterback has said as much leading up to the season. The Bills also brought in two short-yardage backs, Damien Harris and Latavius Murray, potentially eating into Allen’s touchdown-scoring potential within the 5-yard line. On both concerns, though, I wouldn’t believe it until I see it because fighting for more yardage through contact is who Allen is as a player. And with the Bills lacking power upfront, it might become tempting for Dorsey just to have Allen rush the ball on a quarterback sneak in short-yardage situations for a touchdown. But even their desire to scale back on those initially could lead to other quarterbacks outscoring Allen this year. I’d probably avoid Allen at his current cost, but I wouldn’t argue too hard with you for thinking he and the Bills would revert to old running tendencies.
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WR Stefon Diggs
Jake Ciely ranking: 10
FantasyPros ADP: 11.0
Even through an at times loud offseason, Diggs has been locked in every single day of practice this summer and is fully invested in getting this Bills team to the top of the NFL mountain. He’s been hyper-competitive, often demanding the most of his teammates, and largely has been uncoverable for the cornerbacks on the team. He has been a constant target for Allen every single practice, and it would be a massive surprise if the Bills didn’t run their offense through the Allen-Diggs connection once again. Last year’s disappointment was compounded by not having any additional targets to help deep down the field or in the intermediate areas, along with Allen’s early departures from the pocket, which signaled a clear lack of trust on film in his pass blocking unit. Now with the interior line improvements, a healthy Davis and what’s looking to be a great pick in Kincaid, Diggs may face the least defensive attention he’s gotten since arriving in Buffalo. Things are looking very good for Diggs to be worth every bit of his ADP.
Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (28) should enter this season comfortably as the team’s RB1. (Jorge Lemus / NurPhoto via Getty Images)RB James Cook
Jake Ciely ranking: 61
FantasyPros ADP: 76.3
Those expecting the Bills’ backfield to be the same split committee approach as it’s been the past several years haven’t been paying close enough attention. From everything we have seen from Cook this summer — his practice usage, his preseason game usage, how the team is talking about him and how he’s performed every day — there is a big gap between Cook and the backup options. Cook was consistently the top back all training camp. In Josh Allen’s preseason outing against the Steelers, Cook was on the field for 16 of Allen’s 18 snaps (penalties included), and the only two plays he wasn’t on the field was after being on the field for nine consecutive plays and needing a breather. While it’s true that Damien Harris wasn’t available for the Steelers game, Harris is in his own battle for backup duties and likely wasn’t going to impact Cook’s usage.
Already the best pass-catching back Allen has ever had, the Bills believe Cook has three-down potential and that he’s improved in some of his power running and as a blocker. They invested minimally in their backup runners with one-year deals on small contracts. Conservatively, I’d expect Cook to be on the field for at least 55 percent of offensive snaps this year, barring injury, though I’d also take the over if that were the official line. While it’s true that Allen has yet to target running backs at a high rate in the past, he was also working with players who didn’t offer much in the passing game. Cook can get deep down the field and make big plays improvisationally that no previous Bills running back could. With his potential in a top-flight offense, Cook should be getting drafted closer to where Ciely has him ranked, if not slightly earlier.
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WR Gabe Davis
Jake Ciely ranking: 81
FantasyPros ADP: 100.3
After souped-up and borderline unrealistic fantasy football expectations from a year ago, Davis looks like a potential slight value based on his current ADP. Davis suffered a high ankle sprain early last season and, just by watching the film and how he moved in practice, it was clear he was not the same guy the rest of the way. As a player who isn’t an elite separator to begin with, having his explosiveness zapped from the injury turned him into a very unreliable fantasy starter. His full health, and a locked-in role as their best run-blocking receiver should keep him on the field even when they bring Diggs off. He is going to have huge weeks and some duds mixed in — that’s just who he has come to be within the Bills offense. I wouldn’t go overboard drafting ahead of where he’s going, but you can do far worse for a WR3 or WR4 with spike week potential in a top-tier, pass-obsessed offense.
TE Dalton Kincaid
Jake Ciely ranking: 142
FantasyPros ADP: 127.8
Kincaid has the most potential of any Bills skill player to crush his ADP in 2023. While it’s true that rookie tight ends are primarily slow starters, Kincaid is not going to be deployed as a prototypical tight end. The way things are looking now, a formation with both Kincaid and tight end Dawson Knox will potentially be their most used grouping. It’s what general manager Brandon Beane termed “11.5 personnel,” effectively using Kincaid as a slot receiver who exploits the mismatches of a linebacker, nickel corner or safety. With how Kincaid has played so far, a defense would need to have a very specific type of defender who is tall, a little bigger and with long arms that can run well to be a true match for the rookie. The Bills have been enamored with having this type of personnel grouping and have tried unsuccessfully in past seasons to acquire enough talent to use it.
He has passed every test the Bills have had this summer. He knows how to set up defenders in man coverage, exploit weaknesses in zone, he’s an effortless mover for his size and he has extremely dependable hands. On top of it all, Allen has gone to Kincaid in practices quite a bit. There is a trust and chemistry there, and it’s been there since the spring. Although I wouldn’t advise going overboard and taking him far too early, I have a hard time believing this wide receiver usage masquerading as a tight end won’t wind up as at least one of the 10 to 15 highest-scoring tight ends in fantasy football this year, barring injury.
RB Damien Harris
Jake Ciely ranking: 157
FantasyPros ADP: 115.7
I know the case that’s out there for Harris as a potential goal-line specialist back, along with the Bills’ previous tendencies utilizing their running backs in a committee. However, I think this Cook-led backfield is far different from what the Bills have shown in prior years, and Harris has competition to be the primary backup in Latavius Murray. Murray has been the better fit for the Bills’ offense, as Harris has been unnatural as a pass-catcher. Murray might even beat Harris for the short-yardage back duties. All in all, I’d avoid any running back other than James Cook for your draft purposes.
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TE Dawson Knox
Jake Ciely ranking: 184
FantasyPros ADP: 196.8
Even though Knox has another tight end in Kincaid, the two play largely different roles. Knox and Kincaid will be used on the field together quite a bit. The only thing that could change for Knox is his very high snap percentages from the last two seasons. It might have a micro-move down now with Kincaid around, but Knox is still a big part of their plans. Allen also trusts Knox in the red zone. Knox looks like a solid streaming option for when some players are on bye or if the Bills are up against a lousy defense.
Others to monitor
RB Latavius Murray – He is legitimate competition for Harris to be Cook’s backup, and he’s quickly become a favorite in the locker room of the coaching staff. If anything happened to Cook, the Bills would be likeliest to roll with a Murray and Harris committee. The same as Harris, I’d probably avoid drafting any Bills running back other than Cook.
WR Trent Sherfield – Sherfield has seen his opportunities go up since arriving in the spring, and he is the odds-on-favorite to be the most commonly used third receiver for when the Bills are in a traditional 11-personnel formation. In preseason games, he has shown to be the primary backup at both Diggs’ ‘Z’ position and Davis’ ‘X’ position, while also being able to play in the slot. Sherfield should have a steady role but a smaller one than Kincaid. Sherfield’s role, despite being the favorite to be the WR3, will get cut into by Deonte Harty and possibly Khalil Shakir. Sherfield is best left for watch lists and as a priority add should Diggs, Davis or Kincaid get injured.
WR Khalil Shakir – The 2022 fifth-round pick slowly has fallen down the depth chart based on his usage in the past two preseason games and is likely looking at a minimal role to start the season. It would not be a surprise if he were a game-day inactive to begin the year while the team is fully healthy.
WR Deonte Harty – The Bills have used Harty both at slot receiver and on the outside. He’ll have some weeks where he makes a huge play deep down the field, but it likely won’t be consistent enough to depend on in fantasy lineups. At this point, Harty seems below Sherfield and ahead of Shakir on the depth chart.
(Top photo: Dalton Kincaid / USA Today)
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